Does Home Advantage in Football Really Exist?

It’s the long-held belief in football and sport in general that playing at home, in front of your supporters, comes with an implicit advantage.

There’s no place like home, of course, but there are plenty of football theorists who claim that – in certain circumstances – playing at home is actually a disadvantage. Think about those teams who are under-performing in the league, and who are subject to heckling and abuse from their fans… for them, playing away from home is a blessing.

There is a feeling too that home teams can be swelled by over-confidence on home soil, and tend to continue attacking even after taking a one-goal lead in a game – not always the smartest strategy.

So, it’s an interesting question for fans of the beautiful game and punters alike to ponder: does home advantage in football really exist?

Is Home Advantage Real?

To get us up and running, here’s the home win, draw and away win splits from Europe’s ‘big five’ leagues during the 2018/19 (pre pandemic) season:

When looking at the pure numbers, we have to conclude that yes, playing at home is an advantage in football.

The stats don’t tell the whole tale – in low-scoring leagues, there tends to be more draws, which makes a mockery of the home/away debate. But, for the most part, there is an advantage to be had when playing at home.

But why? Of course, the five leagues we have used here have some of the highest attendances in club football anywhere on the planet. So maybe it’s the size – and thus the audible support – of the home crowd that makes the difference?

Does Home Advantage Exist Even Behind Closed Doors?

The first test we can run is to compare the home-draw-away splits in Europe’s big five leagues during that final pre-pandemic season, with the 2020/21 campaign, which was played behind closed doors as lockdown was in effect.

If the hypothesis is correct, then there shouldn’t be a home advantage without a crowd, right?

The takeaway point here is that the absence of a crowd did have a negative impact on home advantage. The home win ratio fell from 48% to 38% in the Premier League, from 44% to 42% in La Liga, from 44% to 41% in Serie A, from 45% to 42% in the Bundesliga and from 43% to 38% in Ligue 1.

But to play devil’s advocate, wouldn’t you expect the drop-off to be greater in Spain, Italy and Germany? Only in England and France was the tariff on home advantage 5% or more during games with crowds as opposed to behind closed doors fixtures.

Academics have since confirmed that home advantage existed even during games with no supporters present, although their research found that referees were somewhat more lenient towards away teams when there wasn’t a crowd baying for their blood.

Does Country Size Make a Difference to Home Advantage?

Another interesting variable to consider in the debate around home advantage in football is the size of the country.

In theory, the home advantage should be greater in countries that cover a larger geographical area. Why? Because the away teams face the discomfort of travelling greater distances, and they might have far fewer supporters cheering them on given that more travel typically equals a greater financial expense.

So, we’ve taken three huge countries with decent domestic leagues – the United States (MLS), Russia (Premier League) and Brazil (Serie A) – and pitted them against three much smaller nations… Belgium’s First Division A, Cyprus’ First Division and the Slovenian Prva Liga. Data is taken from the 2018/19 season:

We can surmise that the geographical size of a country only has a marginal impact upon the level of home advantage experienced.

Interestingly, it’s those divisions in the Americas – the MLS in the USA and Brazil’s Serie A – that had the highest home advantage figure. So could it be a cultural thing? Perhaps not, given that in Mexico’s Liga MX the home win ratio was just 39% in 21/22.

Do Pitch Conditions/Dimensions Impact Home Advantage?

One of the interesting things about playing at home is that the hosts get to set the agenda – how big/small do they want the pitch to be? How ‘pure’ do they want the playing surface to be… or how bobbly/muddy?

We’re not entirely sure that pitch size plays a part. Manchester City have the second largest playing area in the Premier League, but Liverpool’s is the fourth smallest. Relegation fodder Norwich and Watford have fairly average-sized pitches, so maybe there’s not too much to be read into that.

Mind you, there’s an interesting case to be found in the MLS. New York City FC play their home matches at the New York Yankees baseball stadium, and the limitations of that mean that NYC’s pitch is 101m long and just 64m wide… the average in the competition is around 108m long and 69m wide. The upshot? New York claimed 34 of their 51 points on home soil on their way to MLS Cup 2021 glory.

Should You Back the Underdog at Home?

And finally… a look from a betting perspective at home advantage.

We’ve looked at all of the games to date in the 2021/22 Premier League season in which an away team has been the odds-on favourite. How has the underdog fared on home soil?

Home Win	Draw	Away Win
6	9	39

To summarise, yes home advantage is a real thing in football. But betting blindly on the home team? That’s not a strategy likely to yield any success.