If you were to take on the character of a wise old betting owl, offering advice and guidance to newcomers to football punting in particular, there’s a chance you would steer them well clear of correct score betting.
“There’s too much variance”, you’d cry, with – conservatively – at least eight possible outcomes in any given game. And that’s when the match pans out roughly as expected….
However, when you glance at the results of any given set of football results and their accompanying correct score odds, it’s difficult not to develop an interest in punting in this way.
Exhibit A: Gameweek 16 of the 2023/24 Premier League season….
- Crystal Palace 1-2 Liverpool – 8/1
- Wolves 1-1 Nottingham Forest – 6/1
- Sheffield United 1-0 Brentford – 12/1
- Man Utd 0-3 Bournemouth – 90/1
- Brighton 1-1 Burnley – 8/1
- Aston Villa 1-0 Arsenal – 12/1
- Luton 1-2 Man City – 10/1
- Fulham 5-0 West Ham – 125/1
- Everton 2-0 Chelsea – 14/1
- Tottenham 4-1 Newcastle – 30/1
There’s a lot to drink in there, but the most interesting takeaway is that of all those final scores, only two were ‘predictable’ as far as the match odds and the form of the teams are concerned – Liverpool’s win at Crystal Palace and the draw between Wolves and Nottingham Forest.
Otherwise Brentford, Brighton and Manchester United were favourites that all failed to oblige, Arsenal and Chelsea were odds-against favourites that went on to lose, Man City were expected to thrash Luton, Tottenham were narrowly favoured against Newcastle and won by a three-goal margin and Fulham… well, odds of 125/1 are indicative of the likelihood of them beating West Ham 5-0.
Although a small sample, it’s fascinating that 8/10 Premier League games in that particular weekend did NOT go in anything like the manner they were expected to – good news for punters seeking a high risk, high reward betting market.
Because that’s what correct score betting is: a low probability way of trying to win at big prices. But if the 2023/24 Premier League season has taught us anything, it’s that wagering against the grain can be a useful strategy.
Tracking the Numbers
Every country is different as far as their language, culture and politics is concerned, and the manner of their domestic football leagues is different from one nation to the next too – from the goal bonanza of the German Bundesliga to the conservative, risk-averse stylings of the Bulgarian Parva Liga.
Knowing a thing or two about the leagues your punting on is page one, paragraph one of the betting handbook, but for correct score punters it’s vital to understand the underlying culture of the division.
For example, in 2023/24 the Premier League underwent yet another unconscious revolution – a penchant for goals, and lots of them. After 16 rounds of games, the average tally per game was 3.12; by far and away the highest the EPL has seen in the majority of its seasons.
This is important information, because it reveals a theory that even after a team has taken the lead, they aren’t sitting back and trying to defend their supremacy – they want to score again to frank their superiority.
In the 2018/19 season, the most common final scores in the Premier League were 2-0 (12%), 1-2 (9%) and 1-1 (8%). During 2023/24 so far and at the time of writing, that had changed so that six scorelines had been recorded 8% or more: 2-1, 1-2 and even 3-1 amongst them.
So while the cautionary tale is to expect the unexpected when it comes to betting on final scores, we do at least know that the 2023/24 Premier League has a culture and expectation of goals – that’s information we can use in our bets.
Taking a Deep Dive
Would anyone have backed Fulham to beat West Ham 5-0?
Some might, lured by those 125/1 prices, but at face value that would have been a final scoreline that really did lack any credibility.
Until, that is, you take a look at the deeper underlying numbers… and some other information that would have come in handy.
Quite whether anyone knew that a sickness bug was sweeping through the West Ham camp,outside of the club’s inner circle, remains to be seen, but it’s morsels of information like that which benefit punters no end.
And somebody knew, anyway. Take a look at the odds movements for that game – at 06:00 on the morning of the contest, Fulham were priced at 7/5 to win. By 11:00, with the team news still not officially revealed, they had been backed into 5/4.
Tracking steamers and drifters is a topic we have covered on this very site before, and while it’s horse racing where the principles are most keenly observed, it’s true too that football has its own marked odds movements that can prove particularly insightful.
Then we take a look at Fulham’s results prior to the game. They were in decent form, having beaten Nottingham Forest 5-0 last time out, defeated Wolves 3-2 just prior and also putting on a good show at Anfield, going down 3-4 but running up 1.21 in xG from just nine shots at goal.
So what we had was a Fulham team that was enjoying immense success as an attacking unit, up against a West Ham side depleted by an illness bug – are we really that surprised that the Cottagers won 5-0?
We can all be smart after the fact, but it just goes to show how vital a deep dive into the available information is in maximising your potential for winning bets – especially in the field of correct score predictions.
Hedging Your Bets
Nobody can say that correct score betting is easy or predictable – the stats, and their remarkable variance, speak for themselves.
But there are opportunities to back selections at big odds that perhaps have a better chance of landing that the prices imply – the Fulham vs West Ham example was evidence of that.
Perhaps the smart play is to hedge your bets as much as possible. Rather than betting 100% of your stake on one correct score in a game, why not Dutch it across two or three possible scores – spreading your risk and not eating too much into your margin at these juicy prices.
And be sure to read our article on cover bet types on this website – Lucky 15s, Yankees, Trixies and the like. These are another way to hedge your bets in the ever-unpredictable world of correct score punting.